The meat market in 2035: Growth continues, but the balance is shifting

The global meat market continues to grow, but the next decade will not follow the logic of the last one. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 expects global meat consumption to reach around 412 million tonnes by 2035, roughly twelve per cent above the base period. The movement per person is much smaller: the global average is projected to rise by only 0.7 kilograms to almost 30 kilograms in retail weight equivalent. Growth is therefore driven less by a general increase in individual consumption than by population and income growth in emerging economies. Poultry becomes the decisive volume driver. Around two thirds of additional consumption is expected to come from poultry. Short production cycles, efficient feed conversion and the ability to adjust supply more quickly than cattle or sheep make it the most flexible protein in the market. OECD and FAO foresee only modest absolute growth for pig meat, while global consumption per person may even decline. Beef consumption is projected to rise by about eight per cent in volume, with average per-capita demand remaining broadly stable. The geographical distribution matters at least as much as the total for European businesses. Around 76 per cent of additional consumption is expected outside the traditional high-income markets, mainly in middle-income countries. In Europe, North America and Oceania, high prices, ageing populations and concerns about health, the environment and animal welfare constrain further per-capita growth. China remains pivotal, but its role is changing: greater self-sufficiency in pig meat and expanding poultry exports coexist with structurally important beef imports. Price paths are also diverging. Beef and sheep meat are likely to remain relatively firm in the short term because herds cannot be rebuilt quickly. Pig and poultry production can respond faster to changes in demand and feed costs. In real terms, adjusted for inflation, the Outlook expects international reference prices to ease by 2035, with larger declines for pig and poultry than for beef and sheep. This does not automatically mean lower retail prices: energy, labour, processing, logistics, regulation and regional scarcity still sit between the world market and the counter. The implication for the sector is not a simple story of “more” or “less” meat. Segmentation is the key. Volume expands mainly where affordable protein is needed. In mature markets, the pressure increases to explain origin, process reliability, sensory quality and verifiable added value. Beef treated merely as interchangeable volume competes with biologically faster and more price-responsive systems. Beef differentiated and supported by evidence serves a different market. The Outlook is a projection, not a timetable. Animal disease, trade restrictions, geopolitical conflict and weather events can quickly change individual assumptions. That is precisely why it is useful: it reveals the structural forces that continue to operate when monthly figures fluctuate. For businesses in the DACH region, the central question is not whether the world market grows, but in which segment they can remain distinctive as it does.