African swine fever planning must model product flows, not only animal losses

African swine fever preparedness cannot be limited to a list of animal-health measures. Britain’s AHDB has commissioned London Economics to update the economic-impact assessment for a potential ASF outbreak in Great Britain. The 12 October announcement explicitly places producers, processors, exporters and other supply-chain businesses within the same analytical framework. The project will model scenarios involving wild boar or domestic pigs, geographically limited or broader outbreaks, and situations with or without regionalisation arrangements recognised by trading partners. It will also examine the feasibility and practical requirements of compartmentalisation. Production, trade and farm-business data will be combined with supply-chain engagement. The technical distinction matters to the meat industry: regionalisation and compartmentalisation are not interchangeable administrative terms. Regionalisation geographically separates affected and free areas. Compartmentalisation seeks to distinguish production or processing units through biosecurity and documented controls. Whether destination markets recognise either approach affects their economic value. AHDB expects a final report in the first quarter of 2027 and plans an industry visit to Spain to test the model against experience in disease management, trade and recovery. No new loss estimate has yet been published. But the commission establishes a useful requirement: contingency plans must show which products, plants, zones and documentary flows could continue to operate under each scenario.