More EU poultry supply will depend on import approval and feed costs

The European Commission’s new autumn outlook changes how poultry-meat availability in Europe should be read. For 2026, the Commission expects EU poultry-meat production to increase by 3.3%, while imports are projected to rise by 17.1% versus 2025. Beef is expected to move in the opposite direction, with output forecast to fall by 2.2%, while pigmeat production is projected to increase by 0.5%. Greater poultry presence in the market therefore does not result from a single lever.

The origin of imports matters for procurement and specification. Brazil and Ukraine would account for much of the projected growth; the Commission puts the expected increases at 55% and 23% respectively. Brazil, however, has been subject to a suspension of poultry-meat imports since 3 September under EU rules on antimicrobial use. After a positive audit, the Commission announced on 21 October that it would propose restoring authorisation, a measure that still requires member-state approval. Forecast volumes are therefore not the same as immediately available product.

The cost side also matters. The Commission cut its 2026/27 EU cereal-production estimate to 262 million tonnes, 11.7 million tonnes below its July forecast. Maize output is estimated at 20% below the five-year average. Heat and drought have also raised expenditure on cooling systems and water management on farms. More poultry meat on offer does not automatically mean cheaper raw material or stable margins throughout the chain.