Interrupted cattle trade shifts beef value across the U.S.–Mexico border

A new analysis by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri shows that an interruption in live-cattle trade between Mexico and the United States must be read as a shift in value rather than simply as reduced supply. The institute modelled a situation in which Mexican feeder-cattle flows to the United States remain below previous levels after the partial reopening associated with New World screwworm.

The central result is clear: in the United States, fewer available animals raise prices for feeder cattle, fed cattle and beef. But animals that do not cross the border do not disappear. They remain in Mexico and contribute to higher Mexican beef production. The model also projects greater net beef imports for the United States and greater net beef exports for Mexico.

The study’s economic conclusion is that the overall system becomes less efficient: less is produced in total and at higher prices. This is not a short-term price forecast and does not replace daily market information. It is an analysis of the structural effects of reduced cross-border integration.